Friday Nite Scout - Speaks Out

week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 | week 7 | week 8 | week 9 | week 10 | week 11 | week 12 | week 13

Friday Night ScoutWeek 13

Over the years, I’ve noticed that funny things happen on the way to the 4A finals. Many times the best teams in the state don’t make it. Sometimes the two best match up in an early game. Sometimes a key injury can be enough to send a team into a tailspin. It happened in 2005 when the Kingco 1 and 2 met in Tacoma. Skyline and Pasco, the two best teams in 4A, met week one and the Spartans prevailed in a tough contest. Meanwhile Woodinville breezed through an easier bracket on way to a rematch with the Spartans. It happened in 2003 when Bothell beat Bethel in round 1 and looked past Olympia, allowing the Kingco # 2 Ballard, to slip in to the final against Pasco. And it happened this year when Eastlake lost their QB in the quarterfinals allowing Edmonds to survive another week and ultimately providing the opportunity Lewis and Clark needed.

With Eastlake on the sidelines, some will say that the real 4A title was decided last week at Joe Albi. I would be one of those that feel that way. LC has been playing at the top of their game and Bothell had better bring their A game Saturday. If not, the Tigers will be more then happy to provide the upset of the season. I went 2-0 last week as expected and now sit a game away from .700 for the season. Let’s get right to it.


Bothell vs. Lewis and Clark
To me, this is a matchup between teams with contrasting styles. Bothell will come in as the favorite based on their speed and quickness. Like always, the Cougars will run out of multiple sets and motions, utilize a number of players and leverage what they do well. In recent weeks Coach B has done a good job of isolating his weapons and unleashing them at the right times. The key to stopping Bothell is the same as it was last year. Beat the OLine off the ball, plug the gaps and pressure the QB. The last team to beat Bothell did so by controlling the LOS and physically pounding on the smaller OLine. If Kirchner is allowed to get to the LBers he will wrack up 4+ yards a pop. If Ottorbech isn’t stopped at the LOS he will dance around defenders in the secondary. The only way to prevent that is to beat the OLine with the Tiger front four. Bothell should have a decided advantage through the air if they choose to use it. For the second straight week they face a Cover 3 secondary. That means there will be holes deep and between the Backers and DBs. Last week, against the Ferris Cover 3, Bothell slot receivers pressed the seam at will. I think they could have done that all game forcing Ferris to adjust. They should have a similar opportunity this week. Watch for holes in the coverage at about 12-15 yards. The seams will be there. And watch to see if Bothell’s routes don’t attack those holes at every chance. On the Defensive side, the key is obviously Shaw. If he gets off, it allows the Tigers to slow the pace of the game and control the LOS. He is a punishing, bruising back. His speed is minimal so if you make him bounce East West, you have a better chance to control him. Bothell will have to do a much better job of tackling this week or it will be a long game. I would bet the Cougars have worked on form tackling all week in preparation for Shaw. The Tigers don’t want to “quick strike” you. They want to wear you down. If Shaw is allowed to break arm tackles (and he will) the Cougars will be playing catch up. LC isn’t near the threat of Ferris or Eastlake through the air. They will complete some passes but Eglet is not a threat to run (push him out of the pocket) and his favorite target Gauper, is not Karstetter or Corey MacKay. If Bothell’s DBs can smother the Eastlake and Ferris passing game they will have little trouble with LC. I also think Bothell will be more prepared for this final. The distractions, the hype. It will be much more for LC then the semis at TD were. I don’t see Coach Y getting the Tigers up for one more week. LC can win this game if they inflict punishment. And they will try to do that but in the end, the Cougars speed will prevail.

Bothell by 17.

Week 14 Top 20

There were no changes ….. all is as it was one week ago.

1 Bothell
2 Ferris
3 Eastlake
4 Lewis and Clark
5 Oak Harbor
6 Edmonds-Woodway
7 Olympia
8 Central Kitsap
9 Rogers
10 Woodinville
11 Bethel
12 Wenatchee
13 Graham Kapowsin
14 Federal Way
15 Kentwood
16 Mariner
17 Snohomish
18 Evergreen
19 Inglemoor
20 South Kitsap

week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 | week 7 | week 8 | week 9 | week 10 | week 11 | week 12 | week 13

Week 12

A long season draws to close and once again the key player from one team is unable to go allowing another squad to sneak into the next round.  This time it was EW capitalizing on Eastlake’s misfortune.  And, Inglemoor’s luck ran out as they faced a team with their number one weapon.  As predicted Ferris and Bothell remain on a collision course as the 4A title will be decided in the spacious confines of Joe Albi this weekend.  Even with Marcel Smith GK was not going to win this one and Bothell showed why they have been at the top of the polls all year.   The week went 3-1 and I now sit at 63-28 for the season with 4As toughest contests.  I’m going to need all three games to get to .700.   By the way the four teams left all had the best (30-1) odds to make it this far.  Only Eastlake had equal odds and failed.  

The new Top 20

1 
Bothell
2
Ferris
3
Edmonds-Woodway
4
Eastlake 
5
Lewis and    Clark
6
Oak Harbor 
7
Olympia 
8
Central Kitsap 
9
Rogers 
10
Woodinville
11
Bethel 
12
Wenatchee 
13
Graham    Kapowsin
14
Federal Way 
15
Kentwood 
16
Mariner
17
Snohomish
18
Evergreen
19
Inglemoor
20
South Kitsap 

 
Bothell at Ferris
As predicted week 9, Bothell and Ferris will meet to decide who moves on to Tacoma.  The Cougars continue to get better each week and made the 4th or 5th best team look very mediocre Friday.  This week they face a tougher test against the Utah/Florida offense of Ferris.  Bothell will need all of its speed to keep Minnerly in the pocket this week.  That is the key to this game.  If he scrambles out he will be dangerous and elusive.  Karstetter will be a tough assignment as well but I think they faced a better receiving core in week 7 at Eastlake.  Bothell will not shut this Saxon team out but if they can win the field position battle on special teams and keep Ferris to 17 points or less they will win.  Ferris will have their own troubles to deal with on defense.  Hekker has become a surgeon these last few weeks.  What everyone forgets is that he is still in his first season as a starter.  The Cougar O line that was once a weakness has become a strong asset.  Right now they have a solid stable of backs who can work behind that line.  Ferris has not faced this type of offensive diversity and that may be too big a problem for them.  Last week they faced a one dimensional offense without their … “‘One Dimension”.  I think that is going to hurt them this week.  As for homefield advantage,  …. there is none in the cavernous confines of Albi.  I would also give the edge to Bothell in the coaching aspect of this game.   My guess is the Cougar staff will devise a solid game plan and be able to make the necessary adjustments at halftime.  Bothell moves on by 10 in a high scoring affair.  Take the over in this one. 

Lewis and Clark vs Edmonds-Woodway
Once Wenatchee was eliminated and LC got the chance to move into the bottom bracket their odds of getting to Tacoma went up considerably.  Once Rogers’ stud QB TVS went down before week 10 the odds increased again, and now as fate would have it, the best team in the lower bracket was eliminated last week after an injury to their number one offensive weapon.  EW was expected to get the quarters but I expected Robertson to be healthy and the Eastlake Wolves to survive.  Now that the Warriors are in the semis all their focus will be on getting another shot at Bothell.  Sounds like another team that put all of their season on beating the Cougars week 7.  This is the biggest set up of the year.  The underdog Tigers make the tough trip west for the second week in a row.  And they face the high powered offense of EW.  Slam dunk right ?  I don’t think so.  LC has a physical bruising defense and a running back as tough and physical as Heard.  Shaw has been leveling defenses throughout the playoffs.  The Tigers believe and they are playing well.  You need to throw effectively to dent the Tiger defense.  EW has not convinced me they can do that.  Secondly, EW finally faced a physical defense last week and even with Robertson out, …. it took a lucky 4th quarter catch to advance the Warriors.  LC will bring the lumber and force Heard to run east-west.  I think the LC staff will out coach the EW staff.  And my gut tells me EW is looking ahead.  Tigers by 7 in a low scoring affair.  Take the under in this one.     

Your Friday Nite Scout

 

 

Week 11

Once the round of 8 settled in some things became pretty obvious.  The Top 5 teams that have been there all season are still there.  Once again the Kingco conference appears to be the toughest followed closely by the GSL.  The drop by the CBL is mystifying as is the downturn in the SPSL.  And once again, parity reigns supreme.  I think 5 teams have an equal shot at the prize and a sixth (LC) has a solid outside chance.  With only eight teams left, a Top 20 may seem like overkill but … here they are.

The new Top 20

1 
Ferris
2
Bothell
3
Eastlake 
4
Oak Harbor 
5
Edmonds-Woodway
6
Lewis and    Clark
7
Olympia 
8
Central Kitsap 
9
Rogers 
10
Woodinville
11
Kentwood 
12
Graham
13
Federal Way 
14
Bethel 
15
Wenatchee 
16
Mariner
17
Snohomish
18
Evergreen
19
Inglemoor
20
South Kitsap 

 
Ferris moves back up to the top spot with their dismantling of Mead.  Eastlake moves up with their impressive pounding of Cascade.  Olympia, CK, Rogers and Woodinville round out the top 10.  Two teams still in it have some convincing to do and they remain in the second tier.

I thought it might be interesting to look back on my first Top 20 from June (pre camp) when no one else wanted to venture out on the limb.  Here it is:

1
Mariner
2
Ferris
3
Bothell
4
Pasco 
5
Puyallup 
6
Richland 
7
Eastlake 
8
Kentridge
9
Edmonds 
10
Woodinville
11
Oak Harbor 
13
Kamiak
12
Mead
14
Inglemoor
15
Moses Lake 
16
Kentwood 
17
South Kitsap 
18
Evergreen
19
Olympia 
20
Rogers (Puyallup)

Obviously, I was way too positive about Pasco.  Mariner and Kentridge were rated too high and Central Kitsap and Lewis & Clark were the surprises of the season.  But, 16 of the original top 20 remain in it.  A case could have been made to include Moses Lake and Kamiak but … Wenatchee and my Panthers seemed more deserving.   Last week I was 5-3 missing with Woodinville, Olympia and South Kitsap.   For the year I sit at 60-27 in the big games of 4A.  At this point there will be two very good teams eliminated this week.  It is too bad many will judge the entire season for these two teams on their last game. 

TERRY ENNIS BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Bothell                                    3-1
Oak Harbor                           5-1

The odds continue to hold up in the Ennis bracket.  Back when this started I said three teams could win it and two of those three remain. 

Oak Harbor at Bothell
Oaktown travels so well that they may take a bit of the bite out of the Pop Keeney advantage.   I think the key to this game will be which defense steps up.  Bothell seems to be doing just fine even without their sparkplug MLB.  And the Wildcats have one of the best secondary units in 4A.  I believe Bothell will have to run the ball effectively to win this game.  On the flip side Bothell’s DBs will be tested like they were at Eastlake.   Encinas is playing well and the key to his game is releasing the ball quickly.  If he is on, the Cats will score.  Bothell may not have the size to match up with the two twin towers Bell and Rumble, but Oak Harbor has not played a team with a really solid pass defense.  Bothell will pressure you with speed and disguise coverages, forcing turnovers by young QBs.  That’s what’s required to survive in Kingco and for that reason I think the edge will go to Bothell.  This will be the best game of the four.  And the closest.  One thing is for certain, a streak will be broken Friday.  Oaktown has an 18 game win streak going (longest in 4A) and Bothell has a 17 game win streak going at Pop Keeney.  Bothell has already beaten the number 3, 8, 10 and 19 teams in the poll.  Oak Harbor has beaten number 7.  Bothell by 8.  

DON ANDERSON BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Ferris                                      3-1
Graham                                   20-1

As expected Ferris eliminated the team with the next best odds, …. Mead.  And they did it in a convincing fashion.  Graham moves on with their solid rushing attack that exposed SK’s defense last week.   

Graham-Kapowsin vs Ferris
Two big facts stand out to me in this game.  The GSL was a tougher league then SPSL this year.   And I think the Saxon’s are a little more battle tested going into this one.  And the passing game is non existent at GK.  That includes the offensive pass game and the defensive pass game.  Ferris brings a strong passing attack.  Minnerly and Karstetter should make things tough for the Eagles on Saturday.  Smith should get his yardage on Saturday and that will keep GK in the game.  But if you look at the three losses GK had it was against more balanced teams with good defenses.  Ferris will load the box Saturday to stop the run.  On the flip side, I just don’t see the Eagles defense stepping up to match the Saxon O.  On the coaching side I see the Ferris staff adapting better at the half and making the required adjustments.  Ferris will win by 13.

GLENN RICKERT BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:

Lewis and Clark                     3-1
Inglemoor                              30-1

The Tigers eliminated the other team with 10-1 odds and Inglemoor managed to scrape out a win against another team without their starting QB.   Lewis and Clark will win by 20

Lewis and Clark vs Inglemoor
Hey let’s all admit it.  It’s been a nice run by Cinderella.  And although they managed to squeeze out a couple of home games but the dance stops here for Inglemoor.   The odds of playing another team with their number one offensive weapon are nil.  They are up against the best defensive squad left in this tournament and if Woodinville was stymied, Inglemoor will follow suit.   Remember Inglemoor’s only wins against ranked teams (9 and 16) came when the opponent’s number one offensive weapon was out.  This will be a low scoring game and I don’t believe the Viking offense will cross the goal line Saturday.  LC can generate enough offense to put his away and let the D do the rest.  Tigers move on with a 14 point win.    

DICK ARMSTRONG BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Edmonds                                 3-1
Eastlake                                 3-1

As predicted the two who I tabbed from the start will meet to see who hosts the Tigers next week. 

Edmonds vs Eastlake
When this thing started, I predicted the Wolves would have a straight shot to Tacoma.  I’m not going to waver on that now.  EW has not seen the type of offense Eastlake will bring.  And defensively, you can not rely on the run to beat the Wolves.  McCartney is a good QB but he is more effective running the ball then he is passing it.  EW will rely on Heard to get the job done and Eastlake will counter with 8 or 9 in the box.  Edmonds will only survive it they throw the ball.  On defense the Warriors will be trying to cover 4 and 5 receivers on most plays.  I don’t think their LBers are up to the task.  Eastlake by 17

Your Friday Nite Scout

week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 | week 7 | week 8 | week 9 | week 10 | week 11 | week 12 | week 13

 

Week 10

And then there were 16.   As expected the Top 6 teams continued their march to State.  I went 11-5 and we all got a couple of surprises last week.  For the season I sit at 55-24 (.696) and I am below .700 for the first time.  Puyallup, Richland, Wenatchee, Rogers, and Federal Way all lost and did me in.   Inglemoor pulled off the biggest surprise when TVS was unable to go due to injury.  Wenatchee was also the victim of injuries as their big back was sidelined.  As you would expect, there were some big shakeups in the Top 20.  Teams below the Top 10 will be tough to gauge from this point on so I may reduce to a Top 10 in the future.

The new Top 20

1 
Bothell
2
Ferris
3
Edmonds-Woodway
4
Oak Harbor 
5
Eastlake 
6
Olympia 
7
Snohomish
8
Woodinville
9
Lewis and Clark
10
Central Kitsap 
11
Kentwood 
12
Graham
13
Rogers 
14
Federal Way 
15
Mariner
16
Bethel 
17
Wenatchee 
18
South Kitsap 
19
Mead
20
Richland 

 
Edmonds and Oak Harbor were unimpressive against the two 5 seed teams.  Bothell seems to be playing at a higher level than in previous weeks.  Ferris had to go to the last seconds to pull out a win against the CBL 3 seed.  As a result, this is my out on the limb week.  I’m picking several upsets.

TERRY ENNIS BRACKET

Odds of winning the  bracket:
         Bothell                                3-1
         Olympia                              5-1
         Oak Harbor                           5-1
         Central Kitsap                       20-1
         
The  odds held up pretty well except for Puyallup.  
The Vikings looked very uninspired on Saturday.

Better then expected Central Kitsap and Bothell.  Both teams rang up the point totals last week and the defenses came to play.
As expected Olympia really impressed me with the overall strength and balance of their team.  The Bears are putting all phases of their game together at the right time. 
Major concerns Oak Harbor got things rolling in the second half but they were out-muscled and out hustled in the early parts of their game.  Prep came to play and it took a while for the Cats to understand that.

Central Kitsap at Bothell
CK will bring a large following in to Pop Keeney.  And although that will help the young Cougs, there is no way to prepare for the noise and energy of the old stadium.  Advantage Bothell for both the home crowd, and the fact that they are already battle tested in playoff situations.   CK’s staff has done a marvelous job getting the Cougs to week 11, but again I think the stronger experience and ability to adjust lies with the Bothell staff.  Both defenses will be strong but Bothell will bring team speed unlike anything CK has seen.  On offense Bothell has the balance between run and pass to keep CK on their heels.  The key will be which Bothell offense will show up.  CK will bring the same steady offense that has put lots of points on the board.  Lastly, Bothell will also have a distinct edge on special teams.  Kicking and the return game are stronger on the home side.  Bothell advances with a win in Cougar Bowl 2007.  Bothell by 16.

Oak Harbor at Olympia
The Wildcats had to put some fear in the faithful after last week’s performance.  BP was the last of the Narrows teams to make it into postseason.  And the Lions gave the “Wild Weasles” everything they wanted in the first half.  Olympia is a vastly superior team to BP.  In addition, the Bears are one of three teams still in this tournament that appear to be getting stronger each week.  Up north JE’s stats are comparable to Lobb’s from last year.   He has been very good so far this year.  It has surprised everyone except for the Wildcat staff.  But as the season gets longer he will be facing more difficult coverage packages.  He will need to guard against locking on a receiver.   If the Wildcats can continue to be productive through the air they will be all right this week.  If not, then the Bears will advance.  Olympia’s offense is getting more diversified with each week.  Sherwood is only one of the alternatives now.  Champlin has really blossomed into a big play QB.  But he will also have to be ready for disguised coverages in the week’s to come.   Both coaching staffs are strong and the Cats proved last year they were up to the task of building a better game plan.  The Oaktown fans will come on droves negating the homefield advantage of Ingersoll.   And special teams will be a wash.  It all comes down to who will be able to pass the ball.  And the best secondary will control this game.  I like this one as THE game of the week.  Oaktown’s up and down tendencies scare me.  I think Olympia will pull out an upset by 6 points.
 
DON ANDERSON BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Ferris                                      3-1
Mead                                       5-1
South Kitsap                          9-1
Graham                                   20-1

Talk about a messed up bracket….. With Wenatchee’s loss Ferris jumps into the number 1 seed and Mead moves over too.   As I expected, SK and Graham will meet this week in the upper portion of the bracket.   After their win against Wenatchee the Panthers odds had to increase from 15-1 last week to 5-1.  Kudos to Mead and coach Kahuna for their performance against Wenatchee.  The loss of Tyce really impacted the “Galas”.   It looks like the Mead Panthers are peaking at the right time.
 
Better than I thought how bout them Panthers ?  Mead turned in a stellar performance eliminating the 1 Seed from CBL.  Mead exposed the Wenatchee line with a ferocious pass rush and let their O cruise.
As Expected South Kitsap and Graham advanced last week.  Now these two square off with the prize being a trip east to face the best the GSL has to offer.
Major Concerns for Ferris who had to go to mat in the last seconds to beat Moses Lake.   The Saxons won’t be able to go with 69 yards in a half and advance this week.

Graham-Kapowsin vs South Kitsap
Here’s is a toss up game that could go either way.  Both teams advance through the good fortune of Bracketology.  Neither come in highly ranked or as 1 seeds.  Both rely on the run game and shun the pass.  Both teams come in with good coaches.  Kurle in particular brings a solid resume from his time at Bethel.   Marcel Smith is the better runner but I think SK brings the better line.  The Key to winning this game will be on the defensive side of the ball.  If South Kitsap loads the box with 8 and 9 defenders they have a good chance to advance.   Expect a low scoring contest that will swing on field position.   I give the edge to GK on special teams but I expect South Kitsap to advance in OT by 6.

Mead vs Ferris
Rematches always pose an interesting puzzle.  Both staffs have the chance to make adjustments and improvements.  The outcome may just turn on that.  Mead is very familiar with Ferris’ dynamic duo.  And the Spread offense may not pose as many problems this time.   Remember this was a 10-7 game for Mead midway through the 3rd quarter.  And Minnerly had a strong game hitting on 14 of 15 for 173 and 1 TD.  Lastly, Ferris blocked a punt for one of their TDs in the 4th.   This will be another highly emotional game and I think Ferris will be trying not to lose.  Mead will be loose and aggressive.  I keep going back and forth on this one and I want to pick Mead but …. I just think Ferris will bounce back and be too tough.  Saxons by 6.  

GLENN RICKERT BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:

Lewis and Clark                     10-1     now 3-1
Woodinville                            10-1     now 3-1
Mariner                                  30-1    now 25-1
Inglemoor                              100-1   now 30-1

This has become the most interesting bracket now that Ferris has move to the Anderson and Rogers has been eliminated.  All of the old odds had to be recalculated and the new ones are listed.   All of the odds had to change dramatically.  Bottom line ….   This is the easiest bracket to win and go directly to the semifinals.   

As Expected Mariner and Woodinville took care of business last week.   Skyview should have heeded my warning about Todesco. 
A Minor Surprise was Lewis and Clark whose solid defense easily handled Richland.  But they will need more offense to win the bracket
And a Big Surprise was Inglemoor who benefited greatly by the absence of the SPSL’s most dynamic player and then celebrated by calling out their next opponent and their district rivals in the paper.  It will come back to bite them.

Woodinville vs Lewis and Clark
The Tigers have one of the best staffs in 4A.  Coach Y gets the most out of players and they bring a very strong defense into this tilt.  Richland was absolutely exploded last week by the LC D.  And the offense generated just enough to run the ball and score points.   Woodinville’s staff is also good and they bring some team speed that will provide tough challenges for LC.  Roberts and Todesco are capable of racking up the points and if the Tigers have trouble with the Spread O it will be a long day for the D.   On the flip side, Woodinville has to devote a Safety to the run game to shut down the LC O.  I puzzled over this one too.  This should be another toss up match and a great game to watch.   I like Woodinville in the upset by 5
   
Inglemoor vs. Mariner
Inglemoor got a great break when TVS was unable to go last week.  Mariner struggled and had to score a ton late to pull off the win over a Kentridge team they should have beaten early.  Inglemoor lost to KR in week 1 but physically handled them.  I see this as another toss up.  Inglemoor’s stunting D may give the Mariner line some problems.  The Vikings have faced three stronger passing attacks in league games then they will see this week.  The key will be …  can they hold the Mariner run game down ?  Inglemoor is always tough at home unless they are playing a district rival.   They have the better special teams and I think that will be the difference.   Lastly, I like their staff to make better adjustments at the half.   The Vikings live for one more week with a 4 point upset win.  Bring your notepads reporters.  There’s bound to be some great quotes.

DICK ARMSTRONG BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Edmonds                                 3-1
Eastlake                                 3-1
Snohomish                             20-1
Cascade                                  30-1

Like the Ennis bracket this came out pretty much as advertised.  However the two favorites struggled a little last week and exposed some chinks in the armor.

Better then expected Cascade exposed the Federal Way line and pounded out a victory.  I expected the Eagles to hold serve for one week before falling.   
As expected Snohomish and Eastlake both struggled and were fortunate to win.  But they advanced.  They will need to get better this week to continue.
Major concerns  for Edmonds who had trouble with the Kingco 5 seed missing several starters.

Cascade vs Eastlake
The classic run game vs the pass.  Cascade will try to run over Eastlake this week.  That plays right into the strength of the Wolves defense.  To beat Eastlake you need to throw the ball.  This week they will load the box and tee off on the Bruins.  Eastlake will bring in one of the more talented D lines in the state.  It will be a good test but my money is on Eastlake shutting the run down.   When the Wolves have the ball they need to throw.  Cascade has not faced the type of pass game Eastlake will bring and they will struggle to stop the pass.   Eastlake moves on towards Tacoma with a 14 point win.

Snohomish vs. Edmonds
Edmonds played uninspired against the 5 seed missing 4 starters (including 4 year starter Joey Bollinger at QB).  That was enough to concern me.  Snohomish traveled to Kent and locked up in a punching match between two strong running teams.  The kicking game failed Kentwood and the Panthers survived.   Plain and simple, if Edmonds leaves the “A” game at home in any of the next weeks they will be rolling out the basketballs.  Snohomish is going to get their yards on the ground, and if the Panther D can force Heard to run East West they have a solid chance.  What I don’t like is their chance against the passing game.  McCartney can be trouble in the pocket and outside of it.  Controlling him is the key this week.   It was a great effort last week but I’m afraid it won’t be enough this week.  My Panthers will fall by 3 in a very close game. 

Your Friday Nite Scout

week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 | week 7 | week 8 | week 9 | week 10 | week 11 | week 12 | week 13

Week 9

After a perfect week in week 8, I took a bit of a pasting in Week 9.  Rogers and Central Kitsap dropped me to 4-2 for the Super Six (44-19 for the year) and although I wrote about Inglemoor having a let down I didn’t have the guts to pick Redmond.  Obviously I should have.   That made me 6-1 for Kingco.  That leaves me with a final Kingco tally of 36-8 or .818 percent.  I have another chance to raise (or uhhgggg…. lower) the Super Six percentage with 16 opportunities in Week 10.

In the Top 20 some interesting events took place and it caused me to jumble the rankings.  Gig disappeared, SK failed to win so they don’t advance and Rogers took a well deserved jump up.  CK returned.  And Heritage made their first appearance after beating Skyview.  All in all, I think the past nine weeks have revealed who the top 4A teams really are.

The new Top 20

1 
Ferris
2
Bothell
3
Edmonds-Woodway
4
Oak Harbor 
5
Eastlake 
6
Olympia 
7
Wenatchee 
8
Federal Way 
9
Rogers 
10
Richland 
11
Snohomish
12
Woodinville
13
Puyallup 
14
Evergreen (Vanc)
15
Kentwood 
16
Bethel 
17
Lewis and Clark
18
Mariner
19
Central Kitsap 
20
Heritage

 
With so many big games to choose, this week I want to focus on some Bracketology and do a little less game by game analysis.

TERRY ENNIS BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Bothell                                 3-1
Olympia                                4-1
Oak Harbor                           4-1
Puyallup                               15-1
Central Kitsap                       20-1
Gig Harbor                             50-1
Skyview                                  60-1
Bellarmine Prep                     250-1

Best game in the bracket:
Week 11 Oak Harbor at Olympia

Best game this week
Puyallup vs. Central Kitsap

Week 12 final
Olympia at Bothell

Bellarmine Prep vs. Oak Harbor
Prep may be the weakest of the 32 seeds.  Rumble and Bell both have over 40 receptions this season.  Encinas may not the “Lobb”, but he has settled in nicely with 22TDs and only 9 ints.  Oak Harbor’s pass offense should roll in this one.  BP has not faced that sort of air game.  The B Prep DBs could be on their heels all night.  Oak Harbor by 20

Skyview vs. Olympia
Bears are home to matchup with the Cinderella team of 2006.  The Bears defense will make things tough for the Storm offense.  It isn’t bad enough that the Bears Champlin is throwing the ball to compliment Sherwood’s run game.  But the defense is solid as well.  Olympia is just too balanced.  Coach Kizer has really done a great job rebuilding the Storm this season but they don’t have the weapons to win this one.  Sherwood pounds out 100 + as the Bears win by 15

Puyallup vs. Central Kitsap
If I were a betting man I’d take the over in this high scoring contest.  In the end it may be close on the scoreboard but the better defense will win this battle of running backs.  I think the Cougar defense will have a tough time controlling Williams.  And I think the Viking brain trust will have a solid plan in place.  CK scores but it’s not enough.  Puyallup by 4

Gig Harbor vs. Bothell
Bothell is beginning to get healthy and starting to play to their potential.  Defensively they have to be the quickest group in the state.  The Tides offense has been well …. in a word offensive.  The only points they were able to generate last week came on CK miscues.  They were held in check in week 8 and needed an interception returned for a TD to beat a mediocre Lincoln squad.  Bothell’s offense seems to be back on track and they should be able to put up 2 or 3 scores on the tough GK D.  Gig Harbor might get shut out in this one.  Bothell by 20

DON ANDERSON BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Richland                                 3-1
Wenatchee                            4-1
South Kitsap                          9-1
Lewis and Clark                     10-1
Mead                                    15-1
Graham                                20-1
Kamiak                                50-1
Evergreen                             50-1

Best game in the bracket:
Week 11 Richland at Wenatchee

Best game this week
Lewis and Clark at Richland

Week 12 final
South Kitsap at Richland

Kamiak vs. South Kitsap
Could be a closer game then most think.  The Knights appeared very vulnerable last week against Mariner.  In the past four games their defense has allowed 140 points.  By contrast … SK has allowed 155 points total this season.  SK will pound the ball on the ground and score points.  The question is can Kamiak match them ?  Kamiak has some skilled players but their passing game seems out of sync and I think they will need to be able to throw to pull off a win.  Cub needs to have a game Saturday to make it happen.  My guess is that SK will be able to control the ball and the clock.  SK is the more physical team and will prevail by 7

Graham-Kapowsin vs. Evergreen
Toss up game with some advantage going to the home team in this one.  Marcel Smith may be the best back in the SPSL and even 8 men in the box can’t prevented him from getting his yards.  E-Green has been struggling with the run game.  The Plainsmen couldn’t stop Skyview or Mountain View on the ground.  Yet, somehow they managed to win both those games.  I think the luck runs out this week.  I don’t see Evergreen’s Defense stopping  the M Train.  GK’s team is very one dimensional but if can’t force them to throw you are in for a long night.  GK by 5

Lewis & Clark vs. Richland
Bombers got things together in the final weeks of their schedule.  This is not the Richland team that lost to Wenatchee behind a young QB.  The new signal caller gives them an added edge.  They have a big line that is providing some protection.  Haworth hasn’t had to carry the load but has been very effective once he was eligible to play.  We may get a chance to see if he would have made a difference in the Wenatchee game next week.  Morales is still the go to guy for the Bombers and they will get tested by one of the states’ best defensive units.  The problem for LC is they won’t be able to generate enough points to win.  I see this as a low scoring contest that Richland wins by 7

Mead vs. Wenatchee
It’s the Panther Bowl in Wenatchee.  Surprisingly this may be another toss up.  Mead slips in after a thrilling win over CV in the tiebreaker.  Panthers are well coached and ready.  Wenatchee comes in banged up and Thomas is questionable for the game.  If he can’t go that is a real blow to the “Galas” offense.  The guess here is that he will play sparingly and that should be enough to get the Wenatchee Panthers a close win by 3 points.

GLENN RICKERT BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Ferris                                    3-1
Rogers                                   4-1
Woodinville                            10-1
Moses Lake                            15-1
Kentridge                               30-1
Mariner                                  30-1
Inglemoor                              100-1
Heritage                                100-1

Best game in the bracket:
Week 12 Ferris at Rogers

Best game this week
Kentridge at Mariner

Week 12 final
Ferris at Rogers

Woodinville vs. Heritage
GSHL 2 is no match for the Kingco 3.  Heritage has had a nice season coming from behind to shoot past Mountain View and Skyview.  Since their loss against Evergreen they have put together a nice run.  Garrett Grayson is triggering the T-Wolves.  Last week he hit on 26-38 for 300+.  This week, the T-Wolves face one of the faster defenses in the state.  The Falcons three losses have been to top 10 teams and they have a very balanced Spread offense.  I think this one will come down to team speed.  Todesco may give the T-Wolves defense fits and if they are silly enough to kick to him ………Woodinville by 12

Moses Lake vs. Ferris
Two of the better passers will be on display in this one. And I think it’s going to be decided by the DBs on both teams.  The “Chefs” limp into the playoffs losing 3 out of 4.  Last week turnovers hurt them.  In the previous losses they fell victim to the deep passing game.  And now they have to contend with Karstetter.  I think Ferris will have the better secondary on the field Saturday.   Saxon’s by 13

Kentridge vs. Mariner
Another toss up game between two teams who had high expectations back in August.   Both squads come in loaded with talent but still looking for that elusive chemistry.  Kentridge is a very one dimensional offense and that has hurt them in big games.  Mariner shows a little more balance but they also rely on the run to win games.  No team that is one dimensional will win this tournament.  I think Mariner may have just enough offense to eek out win.  Marauders by 4

Ingelmoor vs. Rogers
Inglemoor is banged up and hurting after last week’s upset by Redmond.  Injuries have been a part of the Viking season since week one.  And they continue to be as we enter the playoffs.  The Oline is banged up and that means more pressure on the QB and less efficiency in the run game.  The Viking D is not strong enough to shut down the Rams and if T-Van gets out of the pocket,  Inglemoor will be in for a very long evening.  Rogers is at the top of their game.  They were ever so close to an undefeated season and they are playing their best ball at the right time.  Inglemoor should be able to score on the Rams defense.  They just won’t score enough.  The Viking D is no match for the “Horse” of Puyallup.  Rogers by 14

DICK ARMSTRONG BRACKET

Odds of winning the bracket:
Edmonds                                 3-1
Eastlake                                 3-1
Federal Way                          15-1
Snohomish                             20-1
Kentwood                               25-1
Cascade                                  30-1
Bethel                                     30-1
Ballard                                   200-1

Best game in the bracket:
Week 12 Eastlake at Edmonds

Best games this week
Snohomish Kewntwood
Cascade Federal Way

Week 12 final
Eastlake at Edmonds

Bethel vs. Eastlake
Two pretty good gunslingers battle it out on the plateau.  Eastlake has been a little erratic in the past couple of weeks and that may hurt them in the playoffs.  Did they peak too soon ?  If so they will be sitting week 11.  Bethel can put up the points and the field will be loaded with solid receivers on both sides.  The defenses will have to answer the call on this one.  Eastlake has the more balanced attack on offense.  And I think that should keep the Bethel D off balance.  Robertson’s 23 TDs, in a league where pass D is emphasized, should be an indicator.  The Wolves will score points Friday night.  But the Achilles heel of Eastlake is their pass defense.  And Bethel will pick away at it all night.  If the Eastlake secondary puts together a solid effort they will come out on top.  If not, this will be a close game.  I see the Wolves prevailing at home by 6

Cascade vs. Federal Way
I see a very tight matchup.  Federal Way continues to work their magic and it will be interesting to see how they fare outside of league.  Cascade will bring a solid run game with very little air support.  Through out league the Bruin defense has faced very little in terms of pass.  That may come back to bite them this week.  The Eagles present some serious problems at the skill positions.  On Offense they will be able to use speed and put the ball up.  The Eagle O line and D line will be tested this week but their speed should prevail in a close one.  Eagles by 2

Snohomish vs. Kentwood
Panthers appear to have things clicking on offense.  And Kentwood will bring a solid run game as well.  This one will have two of the best runners in 4A slashing it out on the field.  Logic dictates that the team with the best defense will win this one.  And I think the Conqs D is better.   But I also think you need the solid threat of the passing game to beat the Panthers.  Kentwood hasn’t really shown that this season.  I think the Panthers offense is strong enough to reverse this trend.  Panthers by 4

Ballard vs. Edmonds-Woodway
Hardly a tune up for the mighty Warriors of EW.  They should have no trouble with Ballard’s anemic passing game.  And Ballard will be on their heels all night chasing mister Heard.  The only way top stop EW is to force him east west.  If he can get it going North South …… you are in trouble.  Ballard is in trouble.  EW by 17

Now that we have looked at the brackets, here are some general thoughts.  The overall bracket seems to be spread better then in years past.  That may be because of parity.  I would give as many as nine teams a good shot at winning it all.  The toughest bracket may be the Ennis where I think three teams have legitimate shots to win it.  Home field may be crucial in that one.  The Rickert and Armstrong brackets appear to be two horse races each and the quarterfinals should provide outstanding games in both brackets.  The easiest bracket might be the Anderson where again, two teams and a dark horse have the best shots to advance.  Speaking of dark horses, my dark horse pick (can’t be an obvious favorite) to win it all is Rogers.  After a frustrating start they may be clicking on all cylinders.  T-Van presents some huge problems out of the pocket.  And although I still can’t figure out the loss to E-Ridge, their two defeats were by a grand total of 2 points.  They could easily be undefeated.

Several coaches will be watching the Wenatchee contest on Saturday.  The “Galas” are not healthy going into this one.  Victories by Mead and Ferris would change the brackets dramatically.  Ferris would take Wenatchee’s spot.  Mead would slide into the Richland/LC spot and the winner of Richland/LC would move to where Ferris is now (lower bracket).   If that happens, Rogers’ odds will move up considerably.  Bottom line is …. With all the parity, any one team could get on a roll and win 5 games.  Being healthy, solid coaching and getting refocused on the “second season” is the key to being in Tacoma this December.  It should be fun to watch.

Your Friday Nite Scout

week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 | week 7 | week 8 | week 9 | week 10 | week 11 | week 12 | week 13

Week 8

It took 8 week’s to get back to normalcy.  But , …. It’s here.  Week 8 comes and goes with Scout a perfect 6-0 on the tough games and 6-0 in Kingco.  Whooo  Hooo !!   For the season I sit at 40-17 (.700) for Super Six and 30-7 (.810) in Kingco.  Now I need to build on that and try to finish around .750 for the season.  I saw EW Marysville on Friday and came away impressed with MP.  The first half score doesn’t tell the story as MP’s rushing attack chewed up a bunch of yardage.  They came out in the second half fired up and drove the distance to close to within 4 points.   The onside kick following the score was a great call.  And after they recovered the ball, they looked to be on the way to another score.   But when EW forced MP to pass they had problems.  Four interceptions sealed their doom.  The last was returned for a TD.  And although neither team threw the ball very much, the fact that MP struggles with the passing game will hurt them come playoff time.  EW survived a scare but looked vulnerable.  MP will probably need to win a shootout Saturday to get in.  No offense to Cascade and Lake Stevens but, …… here’s hoping they do.  The Tommies have made some great strides this year.   Coach Carson and his staff have done a remarkable job and are to be congratulated.

As a result of the games this week there was some movement in the Scout’s Top 20.   EW, Eastlake and Bothell all had lackluster performances last week.  The later two probably had an emotional letdown after their contest.  But in any case, Oaktown gets rewarded based on their effort last week.   Losses by Woodinville, Gig Harbor and Kentwood pushed them down the list.     
  
The new Top 20

1
Ferris
2
Oak Harbor 
3
Bothell
4
Edmonds-Woodway
5
Eastlake 
6
Puyallup 
7
Lewis and Clark
8
Wenatchee 
9
Olympia 
10
Federal Way 
11
Richland 
12
Evergreen (Vanc)
13
Rogers 
14
Snohomish
15
Central Valley 
16
Kamiak
17
Woodinville
18
Skyview
19
Bethel 
20
Kentwood 

 
Based on last week’s scores here is the revised week 10 Brackets.  Where there are two teams the seeds will be decided this week.  My picks are listed first.

TERRY ENNIS BRACKET

Lincoln / B Prep 
Oak Harbor 
Heritage
Olympia / South Kitsap
Rogers / Puyallup
Gig Harbor / Central Kitsap
Central Kitsap 
Bothell

DON ANDERSON BRACKET

Kamiak 
South Kitsap / Olympia
Graham
Evergreen
Lewis and Clark
Richland 
Central Valley 
Wenatchee 

GLENN RICKERT BRACKET

Woodinville 
Skyview
Moses Lake 
Ferris
Kentridge
Mariner / Kamiak
Inglemoor
Puyallup / Rogers

DICK ARMSTRONG BRACKET

Bethel 
Eastlake 
Marysville / Cascade / Lake Stevens
Federal Way 
Snohomish
Kentwood 
Ballard
Edmonds Woodway

Now on to the week 9 SUPER SIX matchups:

Rogers-Puyallup
The Big game of the week will be for the 1-2 in the SPSL South.  At stake is the regular season crown and more importantly, a chance to host three games in the The Rickert Bracket.   And if Wenatchee loses week 10, the Bracket suddenly becomes wide open.  Rogers is playing their best football right now and comes in relatively healthy.  The Vikings  have a great staff and plenty of weapons.  Rogers will be the home team but the friendly confines of Sparks will be a welcome site for both squads.   Rogers “Horse” will pose some problems for the Vikes.  Like Bethel’s Henry, he can throw the ball.  But I think T-Van is most dangerous out of the pocket and keeping him there will be priority one for the Viking D.  Offensively, I think the Vikes will win this through the air.  Williams should be ready to get his yards but I think the key to this game is Elliott.  If he can complete enough passes to keep Rogers honest (translation hurt them when they put 8 or 9 in the box) and eliminate turnovers, the Vikings should prevail.  Scout will be in attendance at this one to see a tight struggle.  Puyallup by 4.    

Olympia-South Kitsap
The title is on the line in this one too.  This is for the Narrows title and the one seed.  Man I wish the other multi-conference leagues did what Narrows does.  Think about an Oak Harbor-Edmonds game or the Rogers-Puyallup winner playing Federal Way for the top seed in SPSL and Wesco respectively.  South Kitsap seems to be hitting their stride at just the right time.  The loss to CK was long ago and they are riding a five game win streak.  The Bears are on their own roll, also winning five straight.  I think this will be a low scoring affair but I have to give the nod to Olympia’s defense in this one.  I’ll be in attendance at MT on Saturday for this one.  The Bears should win by 8.

Gig Harbor-Central Kitsap
The Friday battle between the twos should be equally intriguing.  CK will bring a solid rushing attack led by Howie McDonald who might be the best athlete on the field Friday night.  But Gig Harbor will bring the stronger team and the stronger degense.  Tides defense wins this one by 10.

Evergreen-Mountain View
In August this appeared to be the matchup to decide the GSHL title.  Now, MV is struggling just to make the playoffs.  A loss this week and Heritage grabs the third seed to the dance.   And that’s in a six team conference !!  This is another one of those rivalry games but MV is so overmatched this year that rivalry may not matter.  Evergreen is too powerful for the Thunder.  Plainsmen by 17.  

Kamiak-Mariner
The winner will host Kentridge next week.  The Loser will travel south to Oly or SK.  No question which team has been the biggest disappointment of the 2007 season.  It’s Mariner.  The Marauders must have been looking at the press clippings last summer.  And as a result they have struggled against teams they should have blown out and lost handily to EW when they should have been in the game.  After watching EW and MP last week I am beginning to question how strong the south is.  This week is a chance for Mariner to get some of that respect back.  It’s a rivalry game within district and as always, the records go out the window.  But I think that Kamiak’s Oline gets exposed in this one.  Mariner takes the two seed by 6.

Cascade-Oak Harbor
The Bruins can win the third seed outright if they get by the Wildcats.  That’s a big bump in the road.  Oak Harbor’s air attack should provide more then enough to force the three way on Saturday.  Wildcats win streak moves to 16 in a row.  They win by 12.  

And in Kingco ….

Bothell-Juanita
Juanita is my disappointment team of the season.  I still believe that without parental distractions, this was a playoff team.  But the Rebs are young enough to make some waves
next season.  The Cougars have nagging injuries and a title wrapped up.  It will be a very vanilla  win.  Bothell by 13

Eastlake-Franklin
The Wolves had a hangover last week.  They were a little out of sync following their big week 7 contest.  Letdowns are a natural occurrence throughout the season.  So is refocus.  Franklin will offer little resistance as the Wolves tune up for their Bracket.  Robertson should have a big night.  Check that.  He should have a big first half.    Eastlake by 32
  
Roosevelt-Lake Washington
The Riders cap a season that could have been by handing the Kangs their 12th straight loss.  Roosevelt by 7

Inglemoor-Redmond
This one has upset written all over it.  It’s meaningless game for Inglemoor.  They are coming off an emotional loss.  Redmond is building momentum.  The thing is ….. Inglemoor has to win if they hope to be competitive week 10.  It’s as close as it gets.  Vikings by 6 in OT. 

Garfield-Woodinville
What to do after getting crushed by Skyline ?  Find one of the Seattle schools and rebuild the nest.  I just hope the confidence isn’t disappearing over at Woo-Town.  Woodinville by 34.

One final note.  Time to go out on a limb and predict the Great Eight that will meet in the quarterfinals.  Certainly many will disagree but from my vantage point this is what I see …. 

UPPER BRACKET

Oak Harbor 
Bothell
Evergreen
Lewis and Clark

LOWER BRACKET

Ferris
Puyallup 
Eastlake 
Edmonds 

 

Your Friday Nite Scout

week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 | week 7 | week 8 | week 9 | week 10 | week 11 | week 12 | week 13

 

Week 7

Week 7 is in the books and the playoff picture appears to be getting clearer.  Although strange things could happen in the next two weeks, the Kingco, CBL, GSHL and perhaps the Wesco North seeds appear to be set.  And The SPSL North, GSL should follow suit this week.  In this most unpredictable of seasons, the pattern held true for me as I went a dismal 3-3 in the Super Six big games.  Dropping me to 34-17…… or exactly .667.  So much for getting back to .700.   Poor picks on Moses Lake, Marysville and Graham-Kap, did me in.  In Kingco I was 4-2 with Franklin and Redmond getting unexpected wins.  For the year in the Kingco I sit at 33-7.  There was movement in the Top 20 as well.  The Top 5 still appear to be a cut above the rest but there was some minor position shuffling after the Bothell-Eastlake contest.  Central Valley continued to climb.  The young Bears have a great opportunity this week against Ferris.  Skyview returns after beating Mountain View and wrapping up a home game week 10.  Rogers returned as well.  The Rams have two very tough tests ahead.  But they are in control of their own destiny.
  
The new Top 20

1 
Ferris
2
Bothell
3
Edmonds-Woodway
4
Oak Harbor 
5
Eastlake 
6
Evergreen (Vanc)
7
Gig Harbor 
8
Puyallup 
9
Lewis and Clark
10
Federal Way 
11
Woodinville
12
Wenatchee 
13
Olympia 
14
Central Valley 
15
Kentwood 
16
Snohomish
17
Richland 
18
Kamiak
19
Rogers 
20
Skyview

 
Let’s go back to a Super Seven this week with big games on both Thursday and Friday
I don’t remember any Thursday lineup that was this hot.  Too many games to see.  What is a boy to do ??

Ferris–Central Valley
It may not have the hype of Eastlake Bothell and perhaps not the drama, but make no mistake this is the big game of the week.  And depending on the outcome, it may be the big game of the year.  A win by CV probably forces the dreaded KC tie breaker between CV, LC and Ferris.  Man would that be a treat.    We’d load up the Scoutmobile and head east for that one.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  The Bears will need to have a stellar performance Thursday to pull that off.  Ferris brings in a Senior heavy squad and they are loaded at the skill positions.  The Bears have a great D but they will have to play their best game of the year to hold Ferris in check.  I think CV will make some noise in the playoffs but I don’t see the upset this week.  Take heart CV fans, next season the Bears should be the preseason number 1 in GSL.  Maybe overall.  Ferris by 7      

Kentridge–Federal Way
The last hurdle for the Eagles is a big one.  The Chargers were the preseason number one in the north and they still have the talent to make this a very rough contest for the Eagles.   Shoot, with all of the skill players on the field Thursday it will almost look like an SPSL all star game.  The question is … which defense is going to step up and grab the win ?  I think the simple key here is that Kentridge is giving up a lot of yards through the air.  And the Eagles have the best passing game in the North.  That should be enough to keep their dream season alive.  Hey one last note….. the population in FW is low enough that they should be in 3A.   Coach M has done a remarkable job with this team.  Federal Way by 10

Rogers-Graham-Kap
Rogers and Graham will hook up at the “Crate” to try and sort out the wacky SPSL South.  With all that’s has happened through seven weeks you don’t expect this to be an easy now  …..  do you ?  Throw out common opponents in this one.  FW beat Rogers and lost to Graham.  Bethel lost to Rogers and beat Graham.  I think Rogers will be able to move the ball on offense.  I think they have better quick strike capabilities.  This one has to come down to “Ground Kurle” vs. the strength of the Rogers defense.  They will need to keep Smith in check and force Graham to throw the ball.   I like the Rams in this one, setting up a big cross town game next week with Puyallup.  Rogers by 7

Friday pales by comparison but there are a couple of notable contests to pick:

Inglemoor-Bothell
The annual Spaghetti Bowl North pits the 6-2 (5-1 in league) Vikings and the 7-0 Cougars with the winner getting …. Yes …. a Kingco championship.  What ?? !!  You say ….  How is that possible ??  By some strange quirk of the schedule, Inglemoor and Eastlake don’t meet this year so a Viking win would see three teams atop the Kingco conference each with 6-1 records.   Unlike the more civilized leagues, the ADs in Kingco, opted for the dreaded “CaveMan” coin flip to decide seeding into the playoffs.  Sounds like someone watched Friday Night Lights waaaaaaaay too many times.   The Vikings have been hit hard by the injury bug this year.  So much, that they changed offenses mid stream.  That can’t be a good a good thing.  Bothell has weathered two rough weeks favorably.  This is one of those rivalry games where the records never matter.  When you add the incentive of a co-championship ….. well you get the picture.  This one will be closer then most think and the key will be Bothell’s defense shutting off the “rushing faucet” and forcing the Vikings to go to the air.  If they can do that, the Cougars will secure their fourth undefeated season and fourth Kingco title in 6 years.  Not too bad in a league that has sent 5 teams to the state finals in the last four years.  Inglemoor has only beaten one team that doesn’t have a losing record this season.  They won’t get number two this week.  Bothell by 14

Gig Harbor-South Kitsap
The annual brawl to decide the Narrows Bridge title.  As Wolfie always sez, anyone who is anyone will be there.  Next week the winner takes on Olympia for the Narrows title and the right to host a week 10 matchup with Mountain View.  The loser will face Central Kitsap next week to decide who visits Bothell week 10.  Boy, I have pondered this one all week.  Something keeps telling me the Wolves might be ready to upset the Tides.  Perhaps it was the Tides performance at home last week.  They just appear vulnerable.   And I’m still puzzled by the Wolves loss to CK.  This is tough one to figure.  I’ll go strictly on home field.  SK in the upset by 3

Snohomish-Lake Stevens
I’m absolutely thrilled my boyz are in the hunt for the two seed in the Wesco North !!  But the dreaded Lake Stevens Vikings lie in wait.  And they also want that seed.  LS played a very good game against Oak Town last week.  Lake Stevens has struggled with the run game all year and Snohomish has been able to run the ball against everyone.  Even the Wildcats.  I don’t think there is any question they will rack up the yards.    This one is going to come down to the Snohomish defense.  Can they string together enough series’ to occasionally keep the Vikes off the board ?  I think they can.  Snohomish by 7.

Woodinville-Skyline
Nice 3A 4A contest.  These two teams seem to meet every year.  It started in the inaugural Emerald City KO Classic, and continued through to the 2005 State championship game.  Last season the Falcons had probably their best chance to take one from the Spartans, and they choked at home.  I think Skyline may be the best team in the state this year.  And I think they will be very tough on the plateau.  But take heart Falcon fans.  Beginning next year the Spartans return to 4A and the opportunity to beat them will still be there.  Skyline by 9

And in Kingco ….
Roosevelt over Franklin by 7
Eastlake over Juanita by 31
Redmond over Lake Washington by 24
Ballard over Garfield by 24

Lastly, here is my early projection of a week 10 bracket.

No question some of this may be way out on a limb.  But, after studying all the possibilities, this is my best guess for the bracket matchups week 10.  Keep in mind we have two weeks left.  And, rest assured, there will be some projections that change.  But, I think the 32 teams are pretty close to the lineup we will see on November 2nd.   One other thing to keep in mind ….   The east side of the state never sets their seeding until AFTER week 10.  That allows the team with the best record to stay at home through the Semis.  The CBL champ holds the right to that seed now.  But, if Wenatchee doesn’t hold serve (and Ferris does) then Ferris will move into the top bracket.

     

UPPER BRACKET

Wilson  
Oak Harbor 
 
Mountain View 
Olympia 
 
Rogers 
South Kitsap 
 
Central Kitsap 
Bothell
 
Mariner
Gig Harbor 
 
Bethel 
Evergreen
 
Lewis and Clark